Enough has been written about the recently reached Climate Agreement and in whichever article you analyse, because many people see things from their own perspective, we discover a number of common threads:
There are now more action-oriented plans, even though not all proposals are adequate in our perception. But it is a start and let’s get started as time is running out.
Built Environment: by 2050, 7 million homes and 1 million buildings must be off natural gas. This means insulating and using sustainable heat and electricity. As a first step, the Dutch Cabinet states, that the first 1.5 million existing homes must be made sustainable by 2030. In 2021, the municipalities will know which district is next, and when. Residents must be involved. So we are talking here about residents- activation, participation, and communication.
Agriculture and land use: To be climate neutral in agriculture and land use in 2050, a lot must be done. Part of the greenhouse gas emissions cannot be avoided. Cows produce methane. The sector also captures CO2: in trees, soil and grass. That in turn contributes to the reduction target. Many parties therefore have a role to play in the approach; farmers, site managers, food processors, suppliers, supermarkets and NGOs. So also here a clear bottom-up involvement of organizations is essential.
Electricity: In 2030, 70% of all electricity will come from renewable sources. This will be done with wind turbines at sea, on land and with solar panels on roofs and in solar parks. The demand for electricity is growing; eg. cars become electric, the industry opts for clean electricity, buildings are freed from natural gas and will therefore need more electricity. Many measures are needed to keep delivery reliable. And the recent experienced problems that network operators cannot connect new solar parks to the network sufficiently and quickly enough is in stark contrast to this clear objective. We should realise that during the last 10+ years sufficient attention has been requested for smart and sufficient network connections due to the implementation of sustainability measures. Hence effective cooperation is needed between network operators, energy cooperations and neighbourhood associations.
Industry: In 2050, the industry will be circular and will virtually no longer emit any greenhouse gases. The factories will then run on sustainable electricity from sun and wind or energy from geothermal energy, hydrogen and biogas. The raw materials come from biomass, residual flows and gases. The residual heat is used by industry itself or it is supplied to horticulture or buildings and homes. In addition to being an energy user, the industry is also a producer and buffer of energy. By 2030, the industry must already emit considerably less CO2. In this context, there is much talk about CO2 charges, including the current functioning of the ETS system. However, there is still a lot of innovation needed and, among other things, subsidies are needed. In addition, it is essential not to lose sight of the level playing field of the industry at the international level. After all, we are not alone. We can still be the best kid in the classroom, which can ultimately result in little value for everyone.
Mobility: A lot of effort is being put into creating a sustainable mobility system: mobility without emissions (without harmful exhaust gases), with excellent attainability and accessible to citizens and businesses. There are still quite a number discussions in this area; eg. do the latest plans provide enough guidance and direction? We will continue to inform readers about this; reference is made, among other things, to the Formula E team’s response to the Cabinet’s proposal due to a downward revision of the action perspective; read more ….
We would like to draw the readers’ attention to recent information from the Dutch Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations regarding the “Analysis of project proposals (click here)” and the “Evaluation of pilot projects for natural gas-free residential areas (click here)”.
We would also like to refer you to the EnShared website.
IEA mentions: “The use of competitive auctions has accelerated cost reductions for renewable technologies, such as solar PV, onshore wind and offshore wind, establishing price benchmarks that are recognised worldwide. However, these prices cannot be consistently followed, as each country and technology has different resource potentials, financing conditions and auction designs”.
In her article, the IEA further states: “overall trends show that recent bid prices for onshore wind and solar PV technologies for projects to be commissioned by 2023 range from USD 20 per megawatt hour (MWh) to USD 50/MWh. This corresponds to a 45-50% reduction in contract price for both technologies from 2017 to 2022/23; for offshore wind, the decline is almost two-thirds. It must be noted, however, that these auction prices are based on just a small portion of the total capacity to be commissioned under competitively determined remuneration schemes in the main-case forecast, so average prices may change with the announcement of new auctions. In addition, announced contract prices need to be verified as project delivery schedules and final costs may differ.”
Key excerpts of a joint letter are provided below which was signed by a group of 60 investors, academics, business and faith leaders and NGOs (including Carbon Tracker) and sent to Fatih Birol and the International Energy Agency (IEA) governing council chair;
1) Make clear that the ‘New Policies Scenario (NPS)’ is a business as usual scenario that charts a dangerous course to a world with between 2.7ºC and 3ºC of warming. …..
2 ) Develop an updated, fully transparent, ‘Sustainable Development Scenario’’ (SDS) to reflect the full range of ambition of the Paris goals and make this the central reference of the WEO . This scenario should include a reasonable probability (66%) of limiting warming to 1.5ºC; a longer time horizon (beyond 2040); and a precautionary approach to negative emissions technologies. …… Read more ….
A recent study by Navigant, for the “Gas for Climate consortium“, shows that a smart combination of hydrogen and green gas together with electricity is the optimal way to make the energy system CO2-free.
A good gas infrastructure will be needed in NL in order to sufficiently scale up the share of renewable gas by 2050 for the realization of a CO2-free and sustainable energy system at the lowest costs.
For more details refer to the Navigant website or Gasunie website.
The above message is a confirmation of what we have been arguing about a long time.
So let’s preserve what we have. And above all bring nuance in the discussion. We realise that different solutions for homes and businesses will continue to co-exist in the coming decades; natural gas-dependent solutions, hybrid solutions and so-called all-electric. We know that making the whole of the Netherlands all-electric is unrealistic in view of costs, physical (im)possibilities, the measures to be taken, time required for this, etc. The natural gas transition takes time and will have to be done in phases. Particularly when a municipality has made a decision to become ‘natural gas-free’ in a district. We realise that with the (generally) good gas infrastructure in the Netherlands there are various other solutions in the field of green gas and hydrogen. And that optimum use must be made of this. With transition solutions, so-called “no-regret” solutions must also be considered; after all, we cannot do everything at once. And it must remain affordable.
Dutch Climate agreement | 1 billion extra investments needed in the electricity grid for solar energy in the Northern part of the Netherlands An article in Solar magazine, with the above-mentioned “headline”, published March 13, 2019, does something to us.
QUOTE “If the growth of solar energy continues, an extra 1 billion must be invested in the electricity grid in the north of the Netherlands to connect solar panels. This is apparent from the calculation of the Climate Agreement.
The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) and the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) conclude this in the report “Effects of draft Climate Agreement”. This report contains the calculation of the effects of the Draft Climate Agreement that was presented in December. The network costs have been mapped by TenneT and the 3 largest regional network operators Stedin, Enexis and Liander. This is based on assumptions about the interpretation of the production of renewable energy and the development of demand that are aligned with the PBL. “It has been taken into account that extra investments of around 1 billion euros in the high-voltage network are required if solar PV in the Northern Netherlands grows to a capacity of 3 to 4 gigawatts,” the PBL writes. “From 3 to 4 gigawatt peak solar PV in the Northern Netherlands, extra transport capacity is needed on the extra high-voltage network (EHS), which means that investments will be around 1 billion euros higher.” UNQUOTE
It has been known for quite some time that we need to increase our investments in our infrastructure. The writer of this blog who, as former director/CEO of KEMA and former CEO of Ecofys, has quite some knowledge of these subjects, wonders why our joint predictive capacity has not resulted in timely actions. We have the knowledge and therefore must be able as a society to choose and implement smart solutions in time.
On the other hand, this issue gives room for great alternatives, such as Storage! After all, flexibility and therefore storage is essential in the energy transition. For that reason, a related company, EnShared, is a member of the Flexiblepower Alliance Network.
NVDE: ECN study: Climate agreement can create more than 70,000 jobs
Interesting article; read more …..
CPB: Calculation of draft Climate Agreement
The recent calculation of the draft Climate Agreement by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) shows the implications of the existing climate policy and the various plans that the government wants to take towards 2030.
According to the calculation, the desired CO2 reduction will not be achieved with the existing plans, the industry is lagging behind in climate terms and especially the low income groups are affected in their wallets. The Cabinet responded by announcing that the energy tax increase will be reversed from 2020 and by establishing a (yet to be determined) “CO2 tax” for companies. Read more ….
UN Emissions Gap Report 2018: clear warning that our efforts to reduce CO2 must increase SIGNIFICANTLY
“Current commitments expressed in the NDCs are inadequate to bridge the emissions gap in 2030.
Technically, it is still possible to bridge the gap to ensure global warming stays well below 2°C and 1.5°C, but if NDC ambitions are not increased before 2030, exceeding the 1.5°C goal can no longer be avoided. Now more than ever, unprecedented and urgent action is required by all nations.
The assessment of actions by the G20 countries indicates that this is yet to happen; in fact, global CO2 emissions increased in 2017 after three years of stagnation”. Read more ….
Global Carbon report: global CO2 emissions are likely to increase again in 2018 compared to 2017 (ca. 2,7%); the second year in a row that emissions are rising (in 2017: + 1,6%). Read more ….
CE Delft states that the Netherlands may miss its CO2 target of 25 percent reduction in 2020 by 10 percent Read more ….
COP24 Katowice December 2018
The UN climate summits, or the so-called COP (Conference of the Parties), are global conferences where action for climate policy is negotiated. Read more .…
IEA: World Energy Outlook 2018
WEO 2018 details amongst others global energy trends and what possible impact they will have on supply and demand, carbon emissions, air pollution, and energy access. Read more ….
Production of green gas has risen sharply in 2018 Read more in the article of ‘Duurzaam Bedrijfsleven’….
Report (*) Green Liaisons (“Renewable molecules in addition to sustainable electrons – Contours of a road map Renewable Gases 2050”)
(*): commissioned by: KVGN, Groen Gas Nederland, TKI Nieuw Gas, GasTerra en Gasunie
The Netherlands can produce around 2.6 billion m3 of green gas by 2030, and about 11 billion m3 by 2050.
That is considerably more than the more than 100 million m3 that the grid operators transported in 2017. Read more ….
In 2030: 2 BCM green gas is potentially available for the built environment in NL
In a ‘Green Gas’ (**) workshop, held in November 2018 in The Hague, it was reported that it is possible to increase the production and supply of green gas in 2030 to such an extent that approximately 2 BCM for the built environment can be made available.
(**) workshop was held as part of the Follow-up Meeting Advisory Board Industry Table in the context of the activities concerning the Dutch climate agreement.
Navigant/Ecofys rapport: Gas for Climate
We have already reported on this before. The activities of, among others, Navigant/Ecofys show the enormous potential of green gas in Europe.
So when we talk about the use of green gas in the Netherlands, let’s also include the import factor. Read more ….
Groen Gas Nederland and CE Delft: Successful check on climate agreement plans for green gas in NL
The report states that green gas has a realistic potential in the Netherlands of 70 PJ (2 billion m3) per year in 2030. This results in a CO2 emission reduction of 3.6 Mton per year, plus 1-2 Mton per year in negative emissions. Read more ….
Groen Gas Nederland
In any case, it is worth following the green gas developments closely via the website of Groen Gas Nederland; Click here for more information.
The different studies and route maps sometimes show different numbers and images, which is for many people difficult to follow.
However, all of this shows that green gas, in addition to hydrogen, can make a very important contribution to the energy transition.
More information will follow soon.